But the note cautioned against treating AI as an “immediate fiscal windfall.” Before productivity fully kicks in, governments face upfront costs that could strain budgets already burdened by post-pandemic debt. Government spending explicitly earmarked for AI remains modest—often only a fraction of a percent of GDP—but a sea of hidden costs could make the transition much more difficult for budgets to handle.
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▲METR 此前的研究显示 AI 工具对开发人员生产力的影响,导致生产力下降了 20%;但 METR 表示现在这一发现已经过时,生产力提升似乎更有可能|图片来源:https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2026355544668385373/